Although a working crystal ball into the future is hard to acquire these days, I’m curious about your Divi price predictions in either USD or in BTC. More importantly, why do you believe in that price? Are there specific enhancements announced in the white paper 2.0 that you think will drive adoption or further speculation?
honestly, if I can get 2 cent divi, I’d be freaking happy. 5 cent divi would put me over the edge into a sea of tranquility.
I’d be really surprised if we didn’t at least hit 3 cents by the end of Q4 2018. I feel a lot of folks on are the sidelines waiting to see if this project eventually launches. I’m also factoring in people that bought near the top, if they haven’t sold by now, I think they will have no incentive to sell until it at least approaches half of their purchase price. I have no data behind it, just an observation over the years.
I believe most people who wanted to sell have already sold, as evident by the fact there’s not many sellers on cryptopia. The main issues right now are lack of buyers/liquidity, this should be fixed with a couple of big exchanges after launch; FUD due to delay and loss of faith/trust by some, FUD and Americans selling due to KYC. The fact Americans cannot use Simex, and we see no one opening accounts to even try and sell there yet, while volume on cryptopia is less than 10k a day, shows no one wants to sell for this price. People who wait for redemption and go through the swap process, are people who are here for the long term, and will not sell at these prices. Therefor, I also believe we will be in the 2 to 3 cent range shortly after launch, if two basic conditions are met:
launch is successful, product is working properly.
a couple of new, bigger exchanges, that allow Americans.
that price prediction depends on these factors and these two factors only. I intentionally left market conditions out of it as I believe they will have no bearing to that extent. Past that price, it will be up to progress and continued improvement/addition of features to the product, AND general market conditions. I believe market conditions will not be very favorable for the next year or so, so we might stagnate a little, but within 20 months I definitely think we can be in the 4-5 cent range, and within 36 months in the 40-50 cent range.
General market conditions - I think we’re close to a bottom price wise, but not necessarily time wise. We could see a further drop of another 20-40% in the market, followed by a mostly sideways move. The chart below demonstrates my understanding of the elliott wave structure(call it vooodoo, but it works for me most times). this isn’t meant as a prophecy and is subject to change as we progress and I process new information. But as of right now, I believe we are in wave 4. Once we are done with this correction, either on the lower line of the channel or slightly beneath it(~4,000 btc), we will rise over the next 3 years towards 60,000 btc imo. Even though it looks like a straight line in there, a period of mostly sideways consolidation prior to that is definitely possible. Once we reach a total market cap of 6-7 trillion, I think we will take another major 80-90% dive, as that will be the peak of a major cycle. The good news is A. AS I said I believe by then divi could be at 50 cents, which would give it a market cap of roughly 1.25 billion dollars based on current inflation. that will mean Divi’s market share of the market will only be 0.018%, definitely reasonable. And B. if we can time the top correctly, we will be able to ride wave 3 of one larger degree all the way back up and alot more once the bear is over. Think of the 2014-2017 bull market, but on steroids.
Good observations and thoughts.
I do not give price predictions any more.
1# Humans are unpredictable and not logic thinking but emotional driven in general.
2# The big market makers. Bassically wall street, hedge funds, SEC, Governments, mainstream media. control the market through fear, lies and starting and ending bullruns.
3# I hope and aim for The Divi Project hitting at least top 25. The Divi Project is better than 99% of coins so I assume it will happen and it should.
4# I can live with a 10x in a year from main net launch. But ofc we should aim for full moon. Otherwise we are throwing the opportunity when it arises by aiming low.
5# I know either a project moons (success) or dies a slow death. But we have not even begun yet so no fear my friends. It all first starts at main net launch.
I believe $2-3 at the 3 day run up to launch with a height of maybe $4 after. Then a slow move down to $1-2 as things settle. If we have a stable or higher BTC we are fine. If we see a slow grind down from 5k to 3k and a prolonged bear market the volumes for alts will be pitiful. It will be very tough for Divi to survive a long bear market with the inflation coming. Hopefully that won’t happen and we get stable growth here in adoption through reasonable market conditions. What’s extremely important here is how fast we can hit out USP making crypto easy. Mocci is a good start on release but we will need to move fast on
Human readable addresses, big exchanges, mobile app, wallet upgrades like volting etc and governance. These updates will hopefully be every few weeks to keep the community alive. All this with making it look beautiful will bring the adoption we need.
I’ll do something contrary to my nicknamae today and instead of trying to predict or DIVINE the future I’ll remind everyone an interesting fact from DIVI’s short, but already rather colourful history.
the DIVX exchange token has reached its peak value of around 10$ on Cryptopia Exchange in the early days of 2018. While DIVI as such didn’t exist yet, DIVX to DIVI exchange rate is 1/100. So whoever sold their DIVX back then would now be able to purchase over 2000 DIVI for each DIVX.